By Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)
The US is making an overture to engage more with Association of South‑East Asian Nations (ASEAN) in the light of China’s strong influence in the region and the war in Ukraine.
The main aim of the US is closer security and economic integration with the bloc, although how the country aims to achieve this remains unclear.
More concrete details are likely to be revealed in late May following a meeting of leaders of the Quad (an informal diplomatic grouping between the US, Japan, Australia and India) in Japan.
EIU does not see the receptiveness of ASEAN to the US initiative as a sign that ASEAN nations are choosing the US over China, but rather as an attempt to balance the two powers.
On May 12th‑13th the US hosted an ASEAN‑US Special Summit 2022 in the US’s capital, Washington DC. State leaders from all ASEAN countries attended, with the exception of Myanmar. The assembled leaders released a “joint vision statement” at the end of the two‑day meeting, covering maritime co‑operation, economic ties and connectivity.
The US has a lot of catch‑up to do with China’s established influence
The US has kept ASEAN on the back burner for a few years, with the last special summit held in 2016 under Barack Obama’s administration.
Another was mooted by Donald Trump’s administration, but was deferred because of the coronavirus pandemic.
This year marks the 45th anniversary of US-ASEAN ties and Joe Biden’s administration has taken the opportunity to change tack and increase its engagement with ASEAN.
The US’s existing economic ties with ASEAN are substantial; according to a White House statement, the US has provided more than US$12.1bn in development, economic, health, and security assistance to South‑east Asian nations and allies since 2002.
The US is the largest source of foreign direct investment for ASEAN. Two-way trade between US and ASEAN amounted to almost US$260bn in 2021.
Nevertheless, ASEAN nations see China as the most influential economic power in the region. ASEAN’s larger trade with China does not mean that China is the largest destination market for ASEAN goods, but it reflects China’s significant role in ASEAN’s regional supply chain.
To mark a new push of closer ties, US$150m worth of new initiatives for the ASEAN bloc was announced at the summit.
US$60m of new funds will go towards maritime co‑operation, led mostly by the US Coast Guard, which will deploy assets and personnel to strengthen the maritime law enforcement capacities of ASEAN nations.
US$40m will go into investment in clean energy infrastructure, and the rest of the new funding will go towards other areas such as education, healthcare digital innovation and transport. The initiatives in these areas are envisioned to be followed by more investment and engagements by US private companies and institutions. It is worth noting that the US model of engagement is different from that of China’s, where there is more state-directed investment.
In addition to the financial commitment, the pledge to upgrade US‑ASEAN relations as a “comprehensive strategic partnership (CSP)” at the ASEAN summit in November was made.
The CSP is a model under which the parties co‑operate in several areas of mutual strategic interests, signifying closer ties of states and a goal-driven alignment.
The US also announced a new ambassador to ASEAN, Yohannes Abraham, who is currently the chief of staff and executive secretary of the White House National Security Council, after five years of vacancy; this is a symbolic step forward in US‑ASEAN relations.
Nevertheless, there were criticisms of the lack of one‑on‑one bilateral informal meetings with ASEAN leaders.
A former president, Mr Obama, was much more present at previous summit events. Mr Biden, however, was present at only two of the latest summit’s six events. Before the summit, Mr Biden has only had bilateral talks with the prime ministers of Indonesia, Singapore and Vietnam.
The lack of informal meetings denied him an opportunity to build personal rapport with South‑east Asian leaders, which is often important in progressing relations.
However, Kamala Harris, the US vice‑president, and the US secretaries of state and defence, Antony Blinken and Lloyd Austin, were active throughout the summit.
The US recognises ASEAN’s lack of consensus on Russia
Mr Biden showed respect for ASEAN centrality. The US showed flexibility in agreeing to a conciliatory joint vision statement, not pushing ASEAN nations too hard on sensitive issues.
That statement called for peace in Ukraine and Myanmar, although it did so without explicitly condemning Russia, a major military supplier to several ASEAN states, nor the military junta that took power in Myanmar in February 2021.
Mentions of human rights and democracy were kept to a minimum. The US recognises that ASEAN as a bloc is not cohesive on these issues.
The US’s decision not to press ASEAN too hard on sensitive topics reflects the country’s priority of increasing security and economic co‑operation.
Mr Biden spoke of ASEAN as being important to his Indo‑Pacific plans, although the Indo‑Pacific Economic Framework (IPFE) was not included in the joint vision statement.
Details of the IPFE are expected to be announced when Mr Biden visits Japan for the Quad leaders’ summit in late May, which suggests that ASEAN is not a central part of the IPFE plan.
Closer ASEAN-US relations will not alter ASEAN’s close ties with China
EIU views the proposed upgrade in ASEAN-US ties as a positive step that will lead to closer ties and co‑operation between the two parties in the coming years.
The 10th ASEAN‑US Summit in November 2022 will see the formal establishment of the ASEAN-US Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.
However, we believe that ASEAN will not choose sides between the US and China. ASEAN leaders view the growing risks of bifurcation of the economic and military spheres of influence with alarm, as these could have profound implications on their trade and manufacturing activities as well as technology adoption.
ASEAN will strive to stay engaged with both camps. While welcoming more proactive engagements by the US in the region, ASEAN nations will be careful not to antagonise or downgrade their ties with China.
They will balance their relationships with both powers to further their interests as a bloc and as individual countries. – EIU
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